Assessing the data since the 1960s – drawing on SIPRI long-run series (1958–2025), Eurostat COFOG functional expenditure data (1995–2023), and national budget Vote figures.
Published: April 2026 · Talav Advisory
Ireland is in a defence spending upcycle after decades of low investment. The SIPRI long-run series, Eurostat COFOG data, and national Budget Votes all show sustained growth since the mid-2010s, from a historically low base and following deep cuts around the financial crisis. Investment in defence capability is now explicitly anchored to ‘Level of Ambition 2’ (LOA2), the objective set out in the capability framework devised by Ireland’s Commission on the Defence Forces and adopted by Government in July 2022. Internal security spending via An Garda Síochána remains larger than defence – around double in recent budgets – reflecting the State’s primary spend weight on public order, crime response, and state security policing. Measured as a percentage of GDP, SIPRI data shows an historical high in 1980 at 1.67%, falling to 0.22% by 2024 and 0.22% in 2025, but Ireland’s multinational-inflated GDP materially understates the fiscal effort. No public data isolates intelligence costs.
Ireland’s GDP is materially distorted by multinational income flows – intellectual property transfers, contract manufacturing, and other corporate restructuring. GNI* (modified gross national income), developed by the CSO, better reflects the actual size of the Irish economy. Over 2020–2024, GNI* has consistently been only about 54–57% of GDP, with the gap between the two measures running at €165–€240 billion per year. This means that Irish defence spending expressed as a % of GDP substantially understates fiscal effort compared with other countries whose GDP is less distorted. The Department of Defence itself reports defence as 0.4% of GNI* in 2023 versus 0.2% of GDP in 2024, so this distinction matters for international comparison.
This article draws on three sources with different scopes. SIPRI provides long-run series (from 1958) in current and constant US$, % GDP and per-capita – useful for trend analysis and international comparison but not directly reconcilable with Irish Budget Votes. Eurostat COFOG classifies general government expenditure by function (available from 1995) in current euros – useful for EU comparisons but applies its own classification which is not identical to national Votes. National Budget Votes (Vote 36 Defence + Vote 35 Army Pensions) are the direct Irish government spending records – most precise for domestic analysis, and these Vote Group totals include Army Pensions, which are a significant share of the headline envelope. These three sources are complementary but not directly additive.
The national Budget Vote is the most direct measure of annual Irish defence spending. The Defence Vote Group (Vote 36 Defence + Vote 35 Army Pensions) has moved from around €0.9 billion in 2012 to €1.25 billion in 2024, €1.35 billion in 2025, and €1.49 billion in Budget 2026 – an 11% year-on-year increase. Defence spending has moved from a slow-growth budget Vote to a policy-anchored expansion. The Department of Defence describes the cumulative uplift since 2022 as the largest planned defence spending increase in the history of the State.
Vote 35 (Army Pensions) was €317 million in 2024 – approximately 25% of the total Defence Vote Group. Vote 36 (excluding pensions) best isolates capability spend. Army Pensions are a demand-driven, non-discretionary obligation reflecting the Defence Forces’ age and early-retirement structure, so distinguishing total Vote from operational and capital capability spend matters when assessing what is reaching serving forces. Note however that both SIPRI and COFOG follow international convention and include military pensions within defence expenditure.
The policy driver for recent increases is explicit. The Irish Government adopted Level of Ambition 2 in July 2022, committing to raise the annual Defence budget to €1.5 billion in January 2022 prices by 2028. Because this target is set in 2022 prices, the equivalent nominal figure by 2028 will be materially higher – the Representative Association of Commissioned Officers estimates closer to €2 billion in 2028 money terms. Budgets and the Defence Policy Review cycle tie annual increases to LOA2 milestones through 2028 and to national security planning. This represents a multi-year structural commitment and reform programme, not a one-off correction.
Note: Vote Group figures include Army Pensions. Capability-only spend (Vote 36 ex-pensions) is materially lower. Source: Department of Defence Budget publications and Oireachtas PQs.
Ireland’s largest recurring security cost is policing, not defence. An Garda Síochána receives approximately double the Defence Vote Group in current budgets, reflecting the State’s primary spend weight on public order, crime response, and state security policing rather than military capability. The Garda Vote grows steadily with staffing and operational demand rather than in episodic surges. Modern budgets emphasise recruitment recovery, overtime resilience, and ICT/fleet/estate modernisation.
| Year | Defence Vote Group (€bn) | Garda Vote (€bn) | Garda / Defence ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 0.90 | 1.43 | 1.6× |
| 2020 | 1.04 | 1.77 | 1.7× |
| 2021 | 1.07 | 1.95 | 1.8× |
| 2023 | 1.21 | 2.14 | 1.8× |
| 2024 | 1.25 | 2.31 | 1.8× |
| 2025 | 1.35 | 2.48 | 1.8× |
| 2026 (Budget) | 1.49 | 2.59 | 1.7× |
Sources: Department of Defence and Department of Justice press releases on annual Budgets; Oireachtas written answers on historical allocations. Garda 2012 figure is €1.425bn current allocation plus capital.
Budget 2026 raises Garda funding to an unprecedented €2.59 billion, funding up to 1,000 new Garda recruits, 200 additional staff, a doubling of the Garda Reserve to over 600, an overtime budget of €169 million, and €160 million in technology and innovation. Government statements link sustained Garda funding to recruitment increases, operational resilience (overtime), ICT/fleet/estate modernisation, and cyber-enabled threat capacity. The National Cyber Security Centre budget also increases by over 50% to €12 million in Budget 2026.
There are no standalone published spend lines for Garda security and intelligence activity or Defence Forces military intelligence within either Vote, so any assessment of Ireland’s aggregate spend on intelligence and state security has to be inferred rather than read directly from published accounts.
Eurostat COFOG data classifies Irish government defence expenditure by functional purpose. The picture is stark in its simplicity: Irish defence spending is overwhelmingly military capability expenditure, with small civil-defence lines and effectively no defence R&D.
| Year | Defence total | Military defence | Civil defence | R&D defence | Defence n.e.c. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | 444.4 | 327.3 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 29.2 |
| 2000 | 557.8 | 407.7 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 38.3 |
| 2010 | 595.8 | 409.9 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 42.4 |
| 2015 | 786.8 | 675.9 | 29.1 | 0.0 | 37.7 |
| 2020 | 912.1 | 780.5 | 31.7 | 0.7 | 38.5 |
| 2023 | 1,241.6 | 1,090.0 | 38.2 | 0.0 | 46.1 |
Source: Eurostat COFOG (gov_10a_exp), current prices in million euro. ‘Defence n.e.c.’ (not elsewhere classified) plus an unclassified residual account for the difference between the total and the sum of visible sub-components.
Military defence has accounted for roughly 85–88% of COFOG total defence since 2011 (with the earlier series showing a larger unclassified residual). Civil defence remains small, modestly rising post-2015 and accounting for around 3% of total. Defence R&D is negligible throughout – a structural contrast with neutral or non-aligned peers such as Sweden and Finland which have invested meaningfully in domestic defence technology and industrial capacity alongside their capability uplift programmes.
The SIPRI long-run dataset is the only consistent series stretching back to before 1995. The earliest available year is 1958, showing US$23 million current spend; the 2024 figure is US$1,333 million and the newly released 2025 figure is US$1,551 million current spend. Two series are presented below: Current US$ (nominal) and % of GDP – each telling a different part of the story. A companion real-terms series (SIPRI constant-2023 US$ and a CPI-deflated current-dollar series) is discussed below.
GDP is materially inflated by multinational income flows. Ireland’s headline GDP is approximately 1.8× GNI* — so the % GDP figure substantially understates fiscal effort relative to EU peers.
GNI* strips out multinational distortions and better reflects the actual Irish economy. Even at 0.40% of GNI*, Ireland remains well below any neutral EU peer and far below the NATO 2% benchmark.
Source: SIPRI Military Expenditure Database (SIPRI Milex v1.2, April 2025). Earliest data for Ireland from 1958. Per-capita series begins 1988. GNI* figure from Department of Defence via Oireachtas PQ.
The two series have to be read as telling different stories:
At 0.22% of GDP in 2024 and 0.22% in 2025 (SIPRI spring 2025 release), Ireland has one of the lowest military burdens in the EU. This figure is distorted downward by Ireland’s inflated GDP. Measured against GNI* (a better proxy for Irish economic scale), the Department of Defence reports the 2023 figure at 0.4% GNI* – still very low by any international standard, but a more accurate reflection of effort. A NATO-style 2% of GDP commitment would imply spending roughly eight times the current level; a 2% of GNI* equivalent would imply roughly four to five times.
Note on per-capita: SIPRI per-capita US$ series (available from 1988) shows a peak of US$355 per person in 2008, declining to US$213 in 2015 and recovering to US$255 in 2024 and US$272 in 2025. The 2008 peak reflected a combination of strong nominal spend and a favourable EUR/USD rate at that time, and should not be read as a capability-driven real peak.
The SIPRI data makes visible a connection rarely discussed explicitly in Irish defence policy commentary: The % GDP high in Irish military expenditure coincides closely with the most intense period of the Northern Irish Troubles. Published accounts describe persistent border security and intelligence demands during this period, and the Troubles era coincides with Ireland’s high-water-mark for defence share of GDP and with embedded overtime and specialist policing structures that have had long tails in both the Defence and Justice Votes.
The Troubles created sustained internal-security and intelligence demands that had no peacetime parallel: Border security requirements, intelligence capacity against paramilitary threats on both sides of the border, and specialist policing structures (in An Garda Síochána as much as in the Defence Forces) embedded structural costs into both the Defence and Justice Votes that only gradually unwound after the Good Friday Agreement. The % GDP peak in 1980 and the subsequent long decline track the intensity and then the resolution of that security environment with reasonable fidelity.
Austria provides the most relevant neutral-state EU peer benchmark for Ireland: both are constitutionally neutral or non-aligned, both are small EU member states, and both are outside NATO. The COFOG comparison is in current prices (inflation effects included) and should be read as indicating relative scale rather than capability equivalence.
Source: Eurostat COFOG (gov_10a_exp). Current prices – nominal comparison only.
| Year | Ireland (m€) | Austria (m€) | Austria ÷ Ireland |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 557.8 | 1,862.5 | 3.34× |
| 2010 | 595.8 | 1,936.4 | 3.25× |
| 2020 | 912.1 | 2,379.6 | 2.61× |
| 2023 | 1,241.6 | 2,857.8 | 2.30× |
Source: Eurostat COFOG (gov_10a_exp). These are nominal (current price) figures; inflation effects are embedded. The ratio narrows after 2015 as Irish spending accelerates.
Austria has consistently spent multiples of Ireland’s COFOG defence total. The ratio narrows after 2015 as Irish spending accelerates under LOA2, reaching approximately 2.3× in 2023 – down from over 3× at the start of the 2000s. Nevertheless, Ireland remains well below its neutral-state peer in absolute level terms. This gap narrows further when adjusted for Ireland’s population (Ireland: ~5.1 million; Austria: ~9.1 million), but does not close.
When comparing to the EU27 aggregate, Ireland accounts for roughly 0.4–0.6% of EU27 defence spending in nominal COFOG terms – broadly in line with Ireland’s share of EU population but below its share of EU GDP, reflecting Ireland’s historically low defence allocation relative to economic scale.
| Year | Ireland (m€) | EU27 (m€) | IE as % of EU27 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 557 | 107,594 | 0.52% |
| 2010 | 595 | 149,607 | 0.40% |
| 2020 | 912 | 176,466 | 0.52% |
| 2023 | 1,241 | 226,805 | 0.55% |
Source: Eurostat COFOG (gov_10a_exp). Current prices. EU27 aggregate may include countries not present in all years.
Several things are clear from the combined dataset:
1. SIPRI Military Expenditure Database (1949–present)
sipri.org/databases/milex
2. Eurostat COFOG – General government expenditure by function (gov_10a_exp)
ec.europa.eu/eurostat
3. Irish Fiscal Advisory Council – “Historical Public Spending in Ireland: An Experimental Dataset”
fiscalcouncil.ie – Historical Spending Dataset
4. Report of the Commission on the Defence Forces (2022)
gov.ie – Commission on the Defence Forces
5. Government decision to move to Level of Ambition 2 (LOA2)
gov.ie – LOA2 announcement
6. Defence Policy Review 2024
gov.ie – Defence Policy Review 2024
7. Budget 2025 – €1.35bn Defence allocation
gov.ie – Budget 2025 Defence
8. Justice Budget 2024 – Garda Vote allocation (€2.31bn)
gov.ie – Justice Budget 2024
9. Oireachtas PQ – An Garda Síochána gross budget allocations since 2015 (confirms €2.59bn Budget 2026)
oireachtas.ie – Garda PQ
SIPRI spring 2025 data update (incorporated April 2026). This article has been updated to incorporate the SIPRI Military Expenditure Database v1.2 released in April 2025, which added 2025 provisional figures and revised certain prior-year estimates. Key changes from the original January 2026 publication: (1) the 2024 Ireland current-US$ figure is confirmed at US$1,333 million; (2) a 2025 provisional figure of US$1,551 million has been added; (3) the % GDP figure for 2024 is revised from 0.24% to 0.22% on updated GDP denominators; (4) the series is now expressed in constant 2024 US$ rather than constant 2023 US$. All SIPRI chart data and inline figures have been updated accordingly. National Budget Vote figures and Eurostat COFOG data are unchanged.